Hi Narimantas!
Narimantas писал(а):
- is not Russia and Germany a thread to Commonwealth countries ? Can Ukrainian, Belarussian, Pole or Lithuanian say that it's not ? or from economy point of view - isn't Intermarium a thread against Germany or Russia?
Surely, the interests of Russia, and of the Russo-German alliance is a threat to us.
However, we should not antagonize them. That would be a mistake. Our long-term goal is to lead them, become the European super-power that takes responsibility for the entire European continent.
Russia is a factor, although a crumbling one. If things don't change, Russia might plunge into the new Dark Ages, become a very volatile and violent area. And knowing that they keep the world's largest arsenal of nukes, we will have no choice than to take them under some kind of control/protection. And we better have enough strength to do so.
Germany - less so. Without its own army that they fully control, and without their own currency, while at the same time still being under occupation, I am not quite sure Germany is a country at all. They don't seem to have an independent opinion for now, and we better use this window of opportunity, when we don't need to "fight" on two fronts (with Russia and Germany) simultaneously.
Look, if Intermarium proves to become a real military power, Germany will have no choice than to follow us.
Narimantas писал(а):
- is V4 Battlegroup not an example that there's already co-op without EU and NATO ?
That's a great example indeed.
What I think we eventually need to do, is for any country that joins Intermarium establish some kind of a military quota that they need to contribute in men, and arms towards a joint Intermarian force.
For example, Belarus has pretty strong special operations forces, Ukraine has lots of jets, Poland has battle expertise from Iraq and recently updated its air-fleet, etc, etc.
No need to go into a bulky and highly politicized merger of all armed forces. But each country can contribute something towards joint Intermarian brigades.
Narimantas писал(а):
- if a new PL president will marry a new UA president - will it not create a personal union that will shake the geopolitics of Eastern Europe ?
I don't think presidents do this. Presidents come to the office and then they leave office (hopefully
).
If you are eager to have a personal union, what might happen is that one of the countries turns into a constitutional monarchy and takes a royal family acceptable to others. Then others could also recognize the same royal house. Jagiellons could be good candidates, especially if you reinstitute them, say, in Belarus first ;-).
Narimantas писал(а):
- is it not in USA interest to support The Crown of Commonwealth ?
Yes, it is.
Although long-term the interest of the US might be quite ambiguous. Their long-term interest is to make sure no one power dominates Eurasia. While this is exactly what should be our goal.
Narimantas писал(а):
- how does China think about it ?
China will undoubtedly support it.
Already today Luka has established some strong connections to China as a potential counterweight to Russia in his game. The Chinese already now supply "military presents" to Lukashenko in the form of army vehicles and equipment. Moreover, Belarus conducts military exercises together with Chinese without even inviting the Russians (!).
Eventually, this could be a convenient merger: Poland can bring in the union a "special relationship" with the USA, while Belarus can contribute a "special relationship" with China.
Narimantas писал(а):
- do you know that V4 military already co-op with Japan ? without NATO.
That's very interesting, I didn't know that.
Narimantas писал(а):
... and add some factors - PL + UA + BY + V4 + BALTICS and you have a global super power.
Definitely. But don't forget access to the Adriatic! It is highly important. For this reason we need Croatia!
Baltics, btw - less so. This tiny stretch of land is virtually undefendable. And parliaments of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are penetrated by "Russian parties" which can throw a monkey-wrench into our wheel at any moment.
Isn't it ironic? In Belarus there is not even a hint on a potential existence of a "Russian party" as a political force, while Baltic republics are penetrated by them. That's another example while its important to be careful, and not alienate particular groups before you are fully ready.
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. Don't forget, that those nukes were already once stationed in Belarus, and old facilities are still there.
