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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 27 июн 2012, 17:00 
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Зарегистрирован: 31 авг 2010, 11:54
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Woloh писал(а):
SD писал(а):
We are a part of Russia precisely because of Lukashenka. Thanks to him Belarus has a very limited sovereignty and virtually non-existent western foreign relations.

This is true, but he is a very unreliable Russian ally. Once in a while he bites Russia, and he does it quite on purpose (with Saakashvili, with Abkhazia, with Bakiev, with Venezuelan oil, with Eastern Partnerships, etc)

But mostly - something is going on with China. We don't see it yet, but judging by a complete grave silence from the Russian side on this matter - they must be pretty pissed off.

All those investment projects, Chinese cities in Minsk surburbs, billion $ bids for Belkalij - that's one thing. But something that stroke me most was a tiny deal for supply of 22 Chinese Hummer rip-offs to the Belarus Army. This sounds innocent, but in reality - this is a precedent for supply of military equipment, when Russia fails to supply one. They are testing the route, and building necessary connections between Chinese and Belarusian military folks. And that's not the first time.


Recently we have been flooded by Venezuelan oil, built re-gasification plant for Qatar LNG and the list goes on and on and on...

...the peasant is incapable of anything except of stealing and petty lies and this is precisely what makes him indispensable by Russia for he converts the state of Belarus into an illegitimate and disgraceful shamble that reproduces perpetual dependency and need of support.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 27 июн 2012, 17:33 
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Зарегистрирован: 31 авг 2010, 23:41
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Monro and Vander - if you don't mind I'll move your conversation to the Russian-speaking twin of this thread.

We are trying to keep this one specifically for those who cannot speak Russian, and not to scare them away with too many Cyrillic posts.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 27 июн 2012, 17:42 
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Зарегистрирован: 31 авг 2010, 10:31
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Окей.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 27 июн 2012, 22:08 
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Зарегистрирован: 12 апр 2012, 19:37
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Of course. Sorry for the mess. ;p


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 18 июл 2012, 21:14 
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Зарегистрирован: 23 июн 2012, 22:50
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Co do Litwy, nie ma szans. Na Litwie trzeba podejmować wszelkie działania, aby potomkowie wysiedleńców mogli odzyskać swoje nieruchomości. Wystarczą międzynarodowe sądy i wsparcie kraju polskiego. Są tak zakompleksieni, że wątpie aby kiedykolwiek były szanse na poprawę stosunków. Ale miejmy nadzieje, że chociażby na Ukrainie znajdą się tacy poplecznicy idei konfederacyjnej, jak na Białorusi

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 18 июл 2012, 21:19 
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Зарегистрирован: 31 авг 2010, 19:32
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Seren писал(а):
Co do Litwy, nie ma szans. Na Litwie trzeba podejmować wszelkie działania, aby potomkowie wysiedleńców mogli odzyskać swoje nieruchomości. Wystarczą międzynarodowe sądy i wsparcie kraju polskiego. Są tak zakompleksieni, że wątpie aby kiedykolwiek były szanse na poprawę stosunków. Ale miejmy nadzieje, że chociażby na Ukrainie znajdą się tacy poplecznicy idei konfederacyjnej, jak na Białorusi


Kali ja słušna zrazumieŭ, Husarz pad Litvoju maje mienavita Biełaruś, i heta absalutna spraviadliva, bo taja kraina, što nazyvajecca Litvoj siońnia, u historyi nazyvałasia Žamojcijaj.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 20 июл 2012, 13:45 
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Зарегистрирован: 23 июн 2012, 22:50
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Andrej Cieraszkou' писал(а):
Seren писал(а):
Co do Litwy, nie ma szans. Na Litwie trzeba podejmować wszelkie działania, aby potomkowie wysiedleńców mogli odzyskać swoje nieruchomości. Wystarczą międzynarodowe sądy i wsparcie kraju polskiego. Są tak zakompleksieni, że wątpie aby kiedykolwiek były szanse na poprawę stosunków. Ale miejmy nadzieje, że chociażby na Ukrainie znajdą się tacy poplecznicy idei konfederacyjnej, jak na Białorusi


Kali ja słušna zrazumieŭ, Husarz pad Litvoju maje mienavita Biełaruś, i heta absalutna spraviadliva, bo taja kraina, što nazyvajecca Litvoj siońnia, u historyi nazyvałasia Žamojcijaj.


Zmojcijaj ? Żmódź? Wybacz, mam czasami trochę problemów z Białoruskim, chociaż i tak zdumiewa mnie, jak Polak i Białorusin mogą się zrozumieć :)
Tak to prawda, dzisiejsi Litvini to w większości dawni Żmudzini, chociaż zajęli też Auksztotę, która mi się wydawała zawsze sercem wielkiego księstwa Litevskiego.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 20 июл 2012, 14:40 
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Зарегистрирован: 12 апр 2012, 19:37
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Żmudź, nie Żmódź. :p Urzędowym językiem WKL był do końca XVII w. ruski, większość ludności to byli Rusini. Chodzi właśnie o to, że nawet litewscy książęta się zrusyfikowali w wyniku podboju ziem ruskich, zamieszkałych przez ludność o wyższej kulturze, niż Żmudzini. W Rzeczypospolitej Obojga Narodów termin "litewski" oznaczał coś związanego z WKL, czyli głównie z dzisiejszą Białorusią, nie Litwą. Nazwiska takie jak Sapieha czy Radziwiłł też są zdecydowanie bardziej białoruskie niż litewskie.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 20 июл 2012, 16:12 
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Зарегистрирован: 31 авг 2010, 19:32
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Serca Vialikaha Kniastva - najchutčej kavałak ziamli pamiž Stoŭpcami, Navanradkam (Nowogrodek) i Jasieldaj. Vy ž viedajecie, što Mindoŭh karanavaŭsia ŭ Navahradku, jaki i byŭ pieršaj stalicaj. Heta ŭžo Hiedymin pieranios stalicu ŭ Vilniu. Ale navat Vilnia - heta chutčej Kryvija, a nie Aŭkštota, chacia tam miežy razmytyja.
Sapraŭdy, movaj VKL była ruskaja. Jakaja mova ŭ toj čas była ŭ Maskovii - historyja ćmianaja. Napeŭna, ŭ tyja časy ruskaja mova była ahulnaj dla narodaŭ, jakija majuć dačynieńnie da pravasłaŭja. Z tymi ci inšymi asablivaściami, ale Maskoŭskija kniazi razumieli litoŭskich biez prablemaŭ. Ale ŭ lubym vypadku, heta nie sučasnaja rasiejskaja mova.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 20 июл 2012, 18:51 
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sorry folks, my opinion here that it's better to be a Russian satellite state in case they agree to drop annexation plans. we are pretty much integrated with them and heavily dependent on them. Sure, the primary reason for that is soviet economy and heavy industry. In case industry collapses, we have pretty much no choice but go for integration with Poland.

Just to be clear here, I have nothing against Poland and have no preferences for Russia. Even more, I'd rather integrate with Poland with other things the same. Too bad things are not the same, I don't see any point to level our soviet legacy in production to switch the project. I'd rather go for "Singapore" scenario with authoritarian even fascist corporate state backed up by Russia, if it is possible.

If it is not possible to avoid annexation by Russia during eastern integration trend - then sure, it's better to start shock transformations and run to the west before it's too late, but it's just a question of survival.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
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SD писал(а):
We are a part of Russia precisely because of Lukashenka. Thanks to him Belarus has a very limited sovereignty and virtually non-existent western foreign relations.

I'm pretty much sure it has nothing to do with Lukashenko himself, it's just a soviet legacy in economy and corresponding elite groups and lobby come from it. Contra-elite groups just do not exist inside the country. If there some accident with Lukashenka - nothing going to change, Belarusian Steel Works needs scrap-metal from Russia, Grodno-Azot needs gas from Russia, etc, and guys who are controlling these industries will push for integration with Russia.

As for limited sovereignty - well, it's just a price to pay. Something tells me that Poland also has a limited sovereignty inside EU.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 20 июл 2012, 20:06 
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usun писал(а):
Just to be clear here, I have nothing against Poland and have no preferences for Russia. Even more, I'd rather integrate with Poland with other things the same. Too bad things are not the same, I don't see any point to level our soviet legacy in production to switch the project. I'd rather go for "Singapore" scenario with authoritarian even fascist corporate state backed up by Russia, if it is possible.

C'mon, usun - you've been consistently pro-Russian on Brama.

It is exactly because of your personal preferences that you would prefer Belarus to perish under the lame Russian mediocrity and economic retardness, rather than to see it drifting away from the half-dead empire which will surely collapse without satellites, of which Belarus is the last one in Europe - the rest is in Asia.

We've lived through so many changes that this one won't be the biggest by far.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 20 июл 2012, 20:23 
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Woloh писал(а):
C'mon, usun - you've been consistently pro-Russian on Brama.

It is exactly because of your personal preferences that you would prefer Belarus to perish under the lame Russian mediocrity and economic retardness, rather than to see it drifting away from the half-dead empire which will surely collapse without satellites, of which Belarus is the last one in Europe - the rest is in Asia.

We've lived through so many changes that this one won't be the biggest by far.

Me? Pro-Russian??? You must be kidding. I work in IT that is pro-EU, US and has no dependency on Russia, and right now I work in Toronto, not in Moscow.

Russian mediocrity and weakness is a good thing for Belarus, it means that we can compete on their market and they are too weak to incorporate us into their Federation. Yes, I believe Russia is on the constant decline, may even collapse, and the only issue is to be more or less distant from them and try to gain resources as long as we can and run away when time comes. Russia is a source of resources and a market and we use both right here and now. These resources can be used for transformation like South Korea or Singapore, if we are lucky.

And what EU suggests? Just to become a source for cheap labour and integration into their economy from a very low start. Yeah, it's not so bad, but no need to rush this, if we fail with our current options we can always return to that.

As IT specialist I hate newbies that are crying about "lets dump this legacy ugly system and create a new one from scratch, with blackjack and hookers" :) It doesn't work such way, migration is a painful and risky process, if we can use some parts of the system during migration period - they should be used, for many and many years. The primary goal is transform Belarusian economy into something competitive and modern, it's better to reuse as much as we can, it's much easier to do it using Russian resources. If our elites are too dumb to use these resources and familiar basis, then they'd be even worse for integration into other project from scratch. New elites from opposition? haha, they've got even less experience and frankly even skills.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 20 июл 2012, 21:52 
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Зарегистрирован: 31 авг 2010, 11:54
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usun писал(а):
SD писал(а):
We are a part of Russia precisely because of Lukashenka. Thanks to him Belarus has a very limited sovereignty and virtually non-existent western foreign relations.

I'm pretty much sure it has nothing to do with Lukashenko himself, it's just a soviet legacy in economy and corresponding elite groups and lobby come from it. Contra-elite groups just do not exist inside the country. If there some accident with Lukashenka - nothing going to change, Belarusian Steel Works needs scrap-metal from Russia, Grodno-Azot needs gas from Russia, etc, and guys who are controlling these industries will push for integration with Russia.

As for limited sovereignty - well, it's just a price to pay. Something tells me that Poland also has a limited sovereignty inside EU.


I should've been more clearer in formulating what I mean: we are a part of Russia with no options available precisely because of Lukashenka.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 20 июл 2012, 22:43 
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usun писал(а):
Me? Pro-Russian??? You must be kidding.

Well, you are definitely not pro-Belarusian so far :).

usun писал(а):
I work in Toronto, not in Moscow.

I see no conflict in that.

usun писал(а):
Russian mediocrity and weakness is a good thing for Belarus, it means that we can compete on their market and they are too weak to incorporate us into their Federation.

That's like claiming that playing in a village football is better than in a premier league. Problem is - what's the point of playing then? You'll waste time, gain nothing, and grow old before you can't play at all.

usun писал(а):
Russia is a source of resources and a market and we use both right here and now. These resources can be used for transformation like South Korea or Singapore, if we are lucky.

Experience shows that resource countries are usually the worst performers. If Belarus is a part of NATO, I don't think Russia will get worse with us. I think it will actually get better. That's the way the Russians are - they respect only force, even if they brag about it.

usun писал(а):
And what EU suggests? Just to become a source for cheap labour and integration into their economy from a very low start.
Here I agree with you, but imo things are not so black and white. You gotta be smart if you start playing this game. Think, prioritize, and place right bets.

usun писал(а):
if we can use some parts of the system during migration period - they should be used, for many and many years. The primary goal is transform Belarusian economy into something competitive and modern, it's better to reuse as much as we can,

We are actually doomed to use this system. Problem is - are you sure we are not trying to keep exactly the rope that strangles us? It's like during Nazi the times - "yeahh, Nazis are bad, but maybe we can use them..., or elements of them...". Nope - they only right choice during the Nazi times is to go into the forest, and blow some trains.

usun писал(а):
new elites from opposition? haha, they've got even less experience and frankly even skills.

We couldn't find a more agreeable point

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 20 июл 2012, 22:52 
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Btw, usun - since last week Russia is a part of WTO.
How is it our market now? You think Belarus is ready to compete with the whole world on the Russian market?
And this is exactly because we wasted 2 f*cking decades on nothing - on trying to preserve "some good elements from the soviet past". Now we'll see how they help us in the WTO's Russia.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 21 июл 2012, 00:13 
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Woloh писал(а):
usun писал(а):
Me? Pro-Russian??? You must be kidding.

1) Well, you are definitely not pro-Belarusian so far :).

usun писал(а):
I work in Toronto, not in Moscow.

2) I see no conflict in that.

usun писал(а):
Russian mediocrity and weakness is a good thing for Belarus, it means that we can compete on their market and they are too weak to incorporate us into their Federation.

3) That's like claiming that playing in a village football is better than in a premier league. Problem is - what's the point of playing then? You'll waste time, gain nothing, and grow old before you can't play at all.

usun писал(а):
Russia is a source of resources and a market and we use both right here and now. These resources can be used for transformation like South Korea or Singapore, if we are lucky.

4) Experience shows that resource countries are usually the worst performers. If Belarus is a part of NATO, I don't think Russia will get worse with us. I think it will actually get better. That's the way the Russians are - they respect only force, even if they brag about it.

usun писал(а):
And what EU suggests? Just to become a source for cheap labour and integration into their economy from a very low start.
5) Here I agree with you, but imo things are not so black and white. You gotta be smart if you start playing this game. Think, prioritize, and place right bets.

usun писал(а):
if we can use some parts of the system during migration period - they should be used, for many and many years. The primary goal is transform Belarusian economy into something competitive and modern, it's better to reuse as much as we can,

6) We are actually doomed to use this system. Problem is - are you sure we are not trying to keep exactly the rope that strangles us? It's like during Nazi the times - "yeahh, Nazis are bad, but maybe we can use them..., or elements of them...". Nope - they only right choice during the Nazi times is to go into the forest, and blow some trains.

usun писал(а):
new elites from opposition? haha, they've got even less experience and frankly even skills.

7) We couldn't find a more agreeable point


1) well, at least I want Belarus to be an independent state and I strongly oppose joining confederation with Poland, Russia, EU. So, from my viewpoint, I'm more pro-Belarus than anyone who is promoting to become a part of any new empire. :)

2) ok

3) I've got a better example where I got personal experience. Playing poker. I don't give a c*** about ego and attempts to play against strong regulars in "capital" like PokerStars major tournaments. I'd rather seek for small "village" rooms with very weak and soft fields. Because my primary objective playing poker regularly is to win money. Similar principle in business, any market is good if you can make profit there.

4) Well, resource-based Canada says hi :)
Anyway, I agree Russia is quite weak and their future is not so bright. However, they got what we lack - resources and market, and we are getting them right now. Sure EU has a bigger market, and much better technologies, and that's not use for us, our economy is incompatible with them and we cannot compete on that market. Huge resources are required to migrate and plug in our economy into EU market and make it competitive. I'd better try to reuse what we have and use as a basis for transformation than to start from scratch.


As for aggression from Russia, luckily it's too weak for that and they've got bigger problems to save what they already got.

5) I looking to our government and top management, I don't think they are very smart, so let them do what they can if we have no realistic and better alternatives (lack of any management resources is a major problem in Belarusian business).

6) not really, similar systems were used successfully in South East Asia not so long ago. Our country is in transition state, right now government managed to preserve soviet legacy production and replug them with Russian resources and production chains, something was even modernized and plugged into the global market and Western production chains (e.g. IT Software; some parts for machinery). We've got maximum resources mobilized to transform now. And here comes the problem, I'm not sure if anyone got a plan what they want to transform to. I'm not sure if they competent enough to prepare this plan and fulfil it. The worst part here, that there are no real alternative top management resources who can do it instead of ones already in power.

I personally think, that we can either try to build a corporate state like Singapore or try to split state economy into few viable conglomerates like in South Korea - they should compete on global market, our domestic market is too weak to allow full-scale market economy, it won't stand a chance against other international corporations and businesses from neighbour countries.

7) I think we have to wait for owners and management from major businesses around state sector of economy or from inside it, or international joint ventures. These are the only guys who can provide required management service. What we can do? May be help with ideology and present it to them.


Последний раз редактировалось usun 21 июл 2012, 00:16, всего редактировалось 1 раз.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 21 июл 2012, 00:14 
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Woloh писал(а):
Btw, usun - since last week Russia is a part of WTO.
How is it our market now? You think Belarus is ready to compete with the whole world on the Russian market?
And this is exactly because we wasted 2 f*cking decades on nothing - on trying to preserve "some good elements from the soviet past". Now we'll see how they help us in the WTO's Russia.


Let's see how is it going to work in reality. So far we are still getting cheap resources and still compete well on their market.
May be it's even a good thing and will enforce our government to reform something.


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Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 21 июл 2012, 04:11 
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I would disagree with you on some points.

1) Yes, and that's why you suggest going under Russia even more by changing nothing. As if it's not enough by now. We have a clash of titans above us. In a union with Poland we'll have more protection, independence and national revival, including language, than under current quasi-independence from Russia. We need Poland same way as we needed it during Livonian Wars with Ivan IV. Without Poland we wouldn't exist into the 17th cent as a nation, and disappear into Russians same way as Novgorod, Tver, Pskov, and others did. Same thing happens today.

3) As we keep playing low, we de-professionalize ourselves, and will be an easy prey to the market, that will surely come to us through Russia in WTO sooner, or later.

4) We'll be pushed out of Russia by tariff free access into it for others in a matter of an eye blink.
Do you have any idea how our industry lives today? The Mogilev Plant of Heavy Trucks has the only one last order left from Russia - its mega-weight chassis which are virtually impossible to replace on Russian mobile missile systems. That's it! EVERYTHING else was already replaced by Russians - they don't buy our trucks, they don't buy our supplies, they don't buy nothing, except for a handful of things they can't find anywhere else on the planet.

Same thing will happen to tractors very very soon. Lukashenko maintained tractor-building at the cost of the society, and appeared at an upper position when all Russian tractor-builders virtually died out in 90s. Good? No. Bad. Now it will compete with American John Deere, and Indian Tata while being totally unprepared for that. We'll see how long it lasts, but I wouldn't bet my money on it.

5) Agree. My position - a worthy alternative will be the one that will kick ass of the current one. Evolution requires that we get someone from the next level of the food chain.

6) I largely agree, but please don't put IT as an achievement of lukas. IT was simply too complicated for those dumb guys to mess with. And where is Epam today? Right - in Slovakia. You probably know the state of IBA better. I somehow doubt it's growing in BY.

7) We'll see. In my article on demographics I claimed that a viable competitor to lukonomists will come out of a mix of industrial (south-east) and nationalistic (north-west) backgrounds - judging by an electorate map. Problem is, the industry might die out by then. The market will kill it.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 21 июл 2012, 21:47 
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Woloh писал(а):
... 4) We'll be pushed out of Russia by tariff free access into it for others in a matter of an eye blink.
Do you have any idea how our industry lives today? The Mogilev Plant of Heavy Trucks has the only one last order left from Russia - its mega-weight chassis which are virtually impossible to replace on Russian mobile missile systems. That's it! EVERYTHING else was already replaced by Russians - they don't buy our trucks, they don't buy our supplies, they don't buy nothing, except for a handful of things they can't find anywhere else on the planet...


Dear Woloh, I kindly ask you not to say anything about the things you don't have the slightest idea of.

First of all, there is NO Mogilev Plant of Heavy Trucks.

There are:

- Minsk Plant of Wheeled Trucks - MZKT. Volume of sales in 2010 - 100 mio. USD, export sales - 90%. And yes, MZKT trucks carry Topol M missiles, but the military equipment doesn't make the major share of sales.

- Mogilev Automobile plant - MoAZ, is now a part of BelAZ. Volume of BelAZ sales in 2011 is slightly over 1 billion USD. Export sales - 99%, and not only to Russia and CIS countries. The surplus of BelAZ import / export is + 455 mio.USD. Production plan of MoAZ plant is more than 200 machines for the year 2012.

Then I should remark that Pakistanians will never buy Tata tractors, and John Deere is too expensive (and too complicated) for them.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 22 июл 2012, 02:30 
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I see your regime overlords give you good statistics. Yes, I was referring to MoAZ.

mogdmb писал(а):
- Mogilev Automobile plant - MoAZ, is now a part of BelAZ.


Now if you're so well informed, maybe you can find some data for MoAZ export into RUSSIA (please don't mix with general exports to all other countries) for, say, 2000, and 2012. Let's compare.

mogdmb писал(а):
Volume of BelAZ sales in 2011 is slightly over 1 billion USD. Export sales - 99%, and not only to Russia and CIS countries.


Next time you want to make it more impressive, mix the number with the general export of the Republic of Belarus. It will be even higher.
Btw, you want to impress somebody with $1 billion for BelAZ? Sales of its main competitor - Caterpillar Inc. - are $60 billion. Eat that.

mogdmb писал(а):
The surplus of BelAZ import / export is + 455 mio.USD.


And please... "surplus import/export" for a plant! Who is the idiot who decided to calculate that number? I can imagine an export oriented business with a negative surplus. It would be called "a failure". Of cause they have a surplus. What's the reason for them to exist without a surplus?

mogdmb писал(а):
Then I should remark that Pakistanians will never buy Tata tractors


Now I see you missed the logic of the conversation. Let me digest it for you. We are talking about RUSSIA, and positions of the Belarusian enterprises on the RUSSIAN market in the view of RUSSIA's joining of the WTO. Do you know what it means? It means that the whole world will be able to compete with us inside of Russia. Your are saying John Deere is expensive? We'll see how expensive they will be when they put an assembly plant inside of Russia. Or somebody like them.

And you know why Russians will be letting all those John Deeres in? Because other countries will remove tariffs for the Russian products and exports. Do you know what this means for us? This means that Belarus - who is not a member of WTO because of Lukashenko and his adherents like you are - is totally screwed. It will get all the increased competition from the rest of the world without any upside. Nobody removes tariffs for us.

Now, in order to get benefits from Russian membership in WTO every enterprise who is not entirely stupid in Belarus will do one simple logical thing - move it's production into Russia. And look what we have in the today's news!

МТЗ организует в Саратове сборку тракторов

Surprise-surprise! I guess they didn't teach you that in your presidential academy.

Sure, there is the second rout - make Belarus a Russian province. Your buddy Churilov is already trying to.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 22 июл 2012, 02:34 
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Here is the map of WTO:

Изображение

The markets left for you and your buddy Lukashenko are marked blue.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 22 июл 2012, 23:43 
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Woloh писал(а):
I see your regime overlords give you good statistics. Yes, I was referring to MoAZ.


Woloh, your paranoia is funny and boring at the same time

Woloh писал(а):
Now if you're so well informed, maybe you can find some data for MoAZ export into RUSSIA (please don't mix with general exports to all other countries) for, say, 2000, and 2012. Let's compare.


In the year 2000 - I couldn't find. Export of Moaz machinery to Russian Federation:

2008 - 10,797 mio USD - 33,01% of total sales (including sales in Belarus)
2009 - 4,380 mio USD - 20,76% of total sales (including sales in Belarus)
2010 - 2,5 mio USD - 21,5 % of total export sales (about 11,6 mio USD)
2011 - ?
2012 is not finished yet, my dear genius.

All data is open.

Woloh писал(а):
mogdmb писал(а):
Volume of BelAZ sales in 2011 is slightly over 1 billion USD. Export sales - 99%, and not only to Russia and CIS countries.


...Btw, you want to impress somebody with $1 billion for BelAZ? Sales of its main competitor - Caterpillar Inc. - are $60 billion. Eat that.


Range of Belaz products is much narrower.
And what is the Caterpillar volume of sales of dump trucks only, honourable specialist?

Woloh писал(а):
mogdmb писал(а):
Then I should remark that Pakistanians will never buy Tata tractors


Now I see you missed the logic of the conversation. Let me digest it for you. We are talking about RUSSIA, and positions of the Belarusian enterprises on the RUSSIAN market in the view of RUSSIA's joining of the WTO...


Woloh, Pakistan was, is, and will be one of the main customers of MTZ. If you don't know that, then digest some information from the open sources. Google will help.

Woloh писал(а):
...Now, in order to get benefits from Russian membership in WTO every enterprise who is not entirely stupid in Belarus will do one simple logical thing - move it's production into Russia. And look what we have in the today's news!

МТЗ организует в Саратове сборку тракторов

Surprise-surprise! I guess they didn't teach you that in your presidential academy.


I don't know what they study in presidential academy. (Paranoia rules! :-) )

Woloh, all of our main machine-building enterprises (Gomsel'mash, Amkodor, MTZ,MAZ, Belkommunmash,) have started to open assembly lines abroad long time ago. For example, "Bryansksel'mash" was founded in 2005. Just try Google to find the rest.

I don't argue, there are a lot of risks from Russia in WTO. But all discussion in form of "Шеф, усе пропало!!!" are absolutely useless.

Woloh писал(а):
Sure, there is the second rout - make Belarus a Russian province. Your buddy Churilov is already trying to.


Oh yeah, me, my buddy Churilov, and our buddy Lukashenko, we'll do it tomrrow :ya_hoo_oo: :ya_hoo_oo: :ya_hoo_oo:

After a good :ho-key: and a couple of :dr_ink:

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 23 июл 2012, 17:15 
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mogdmb писал(а):
In the year 2000 - I couldn't find. Export of Moaz machinery to Russian Federation:

2008 - 10,797 mio USD - 33,01% of total sales (including sales in Belarus)
2009 - 4,380 mio USD - 20,76% of total sales (including sales in Belarus)
2010 - 2,5 mio USD - 21,5 % of total export sales (about 11,6 mio USD)
2011 - ?
2012 is not finished yet, my dear genius.

All data is open.

I hope you see yourself now.
Belarus exports into Russia are falling and will be falling further. My prediction - almost all Russia-bound industries will die out, or shrink to insignificance within a decade.

mogdmb писал(а):
Woloh, Pakistan was, is, and will be one of the main customers of MTZ. If you don't know that, then digest some information from the open sources. Google will help.

I repeat again - the conversation was not about the state of MTZ, the conversation was about dynamics between Belarus and Russia (because Usun claimed that Russia is "наше фсё" for many years to some).
Yes, MTZ supplies tractors to Pakistan (a well known fact). That's exactly my point - all those enterprises who do not break heavy dependence on Russia are doomed (inside Belarus at least, unless they shift production to Russia, or abroad). MTZ also understands that - I guess they are not stupid.

mogdmb писал(а):
Woloh, all of our main machine-building enterprises (Gomsel'mash, Amkodor, MTZ,MAZ, Belkommunmash,) have started to open assembly lines abroad long time ago. For example, "Bryansksel'mash" was founded in 2005. Just try Google to find the rest.

Exactly! This has started right after Lukashenko signed this idiotic customs union with Russia. I think MAZ was the first one - they shifted some productions to Latin America and Poland in late 90s (if I'm not mistaken). (I was even personally present on those meetings in 90s where then prime minister Chigir and this ass Latypov tried to cheer up our top directors that the customs union is not as bad as they think).

However, there are two different reasons why they shifted. Initially they shifted productions to outside of the customs union to avoid high Russian import tariffs on spare parts, which forced our plants to use sucky supplies from Russian Yaroslavl and Lipetsk.

Lately, they've been shifting to Russia (even though labor costs in Russia are higher) because they knew that Russia will join WTO earlier, and Belarus may never join at all.

mogdmb писал(а):
I don't argue, there are a lot of risks from Russia in WTO. But all discussion in form of "Шеф, усе пропало!!!" are absolutely useless.

I don't panic either. All I'm saying, is that between 1/4 - 1/2 of the Belarus economy bound on Russia will die out, or emigrate. Even a nationalist like Poznyak wouldn't be able to achieve such a result in such a short period of time.

Well, many inside of Belarus will suffer. But think about the bright side - it should become better after that :dr_ink:

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
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Boys, what is "mio"? :smu:sche_nie:

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
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Woloh писал(а):
...My prediction - almost all Russia-bound industries will die out, or shrink to insignificance within a decade.

...That's exactly my point - all those enterprises who do not break heavy dependence on Russia are doomed (inside Belarus at least, unless they shift production to Russia, or abroad)...

...All I'm saying, is that between 1/4 - 1/2 of the Belarus economy bound on Russia will die out, or emigrate...


Hard to say for sure. Significant lack of information. Depends on the conditions of RF's entering in WTO and on planned measures during the transition period,as well as on planned measures in belarussian economy (if such plans exist, of course).

I suppose that there are no clear understanding nor estimations even in the Institute of economy of our National Academy, the whole picture is blurred even for informed specialists. For us - only scarce fragments to discuss.

Woloh писал(а):
Well, many inside of Belarus will suffer. But think about the bright side - it should become better after that :dr_ink:


Should it?

And what could be the limits of suffering?

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Rosyjska gospodarka oparta jest w coraz większym stopniu na pozyskiwaniu i zbywaniu surowców. Wyobrażacie sobie, czym byłaby Rosja bez GAZPROMU? W ten sposób nie można budować dobrobytu. Trwały dobrobyt opiera się na równowadze sektora usług, rolnictwa i przemysłu. Przemysł wydobywczy powinien pełnić rolę uzupełniającą, nie może stać się głównym źródłem Produktu Krajowego. Rosja popełnia pierwotny błąd wielu państw, które uzależniły się od zbytu swoich surowców. Jak wygląda prowincja rosyjska? Jak wygląda Rosja, 50 kilometrów od Moskwy? Czy Putin ma pomysł, by uruchomić potencjał tkwiący w tym olbrzymim narodzie?

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Sim0nSs писал(а):
Rosyjska gospodarka oparta jest w coraz większym stopniu na pozyskiwaniu i zbywaniu surowców. Wyobrażacie sobie, czym byłaby Rosja bez GAZPROMU? W ten sposób nie można budować dobrobytu. Trwały dobrobyt opiera się na równowadze sektora usług, rolnictwa i przemysłu. Przemysł wydobywczy powinien pełnić rolę uzupełniającą, nie może stać się głównym źródłem Produktu Krajowego. Rosja popełnia pierwotny błąd wielu państw, które uzależniły się od zbytu swoich surowców. Jak wygląda prowincja rosyjska? Jak wygląda Rosja, 50 kilometrów od Moskwy? Czy Putin ma pomysł, by uruchomić potencjał tkwiący w tym olbrzymim narodzie?


Tut jak pahladzieć. Jość mierkavańnie, što mienavita bahatyja nietry źjaŭlajucca praklaćciem Rasiei. Hetaksama, jak tannyja enerharesursy dla Biełarusi. Mahčyma, kali b nie było biaspłatnych bahaćciaŭ pad ziamloj, my by mieli zusim inšuju Rasieju, ź inšaj haspadarkaj i palitykaj. Jak i Biełaruś.


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Sim0nSs писал(а):
Trwały dobrobyt opiera się na równowadze sektora usług, rolnictwa i przemysłu.
A widzisz, u nas niestety przemysł zamordowano niemalże, a i z rolnictwem słabiej. A usługi? Co rusz przedstawicielstwo to tego, to innego banku na ulicy mijasz. Studentów tysiące, a później zapotrzebowania na nich nie ma i ot, bezrobocie rośnie.
Tak i Żydzi kombinowali, kiedy Izrael powstawał - ponoć starali się ograniczyć napływ przedstawicieli wolnych zawodów, na siłę kształcili robotników, rolników, kibuce powstawali - aby tę właśnie równowagę osiągnąć. Niestety, wygląda trochę tak, jakby na całym świecie tego nie rozumiano - na zachodzie wszystko idzie w usługi, przemysł trafił do Azji. A rolnictwo... truskawki też ponoć z Chin importujemy.
Andrej Cieraszkou' писал(а):
Mahčyma, kali b nie było biaspłatnych bahaćciaŭ pad ziamloj, my by mieli zusim inšuju Rasieju, ź inšaj haspadarkaj i palitykaj.
Bardzo ciekawe, jak by wyglądała. Może i w ogóle by jej nie było. ; ) Ale to gdybanie tylko. Aczkolwiek fascynująca wizja, nie tylko Rosja, ale i cały świat z pewnością byłby inny.


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Seren писал(а):
Andrej Cieraszkou' писал(а):
Seren писал(а):
Co do Litwy, nie ma szans. Na Litwie trzeba podejmować wszelkie działania, aby potomkowie wysiedleńców mogli odzyskać swoje nieruchomości. Wystarczą międzynarodowe sądy i wsparcie kraju polskiego. Są tak zakompleksieni, że wątpie aby kiedykolwiek były szanse na poprawę stosunków. Ale miejmy nadzieje, że chociażby na Ukrainie znajdą się tacy poplecznicy idei konfederacyjnej, jak na Białorusi


Kali ja słušna zrazumieŭ, Husarz pad Litvoju maje mienavita Biełaruś, i heta absalutna spraviadliva, bo taja kraina, što nazyvajecca Litvoj siońnia, u historyi nazyvałasia Žamojcijaj.


Zmojcijaj ? Żmódź? Wybacz, mam czasami trochę problemów z Białoruskim, chociaż i tak zdumiewa mnie, jak Polak i Białorusin mogą się zrozumieć :)
Tak to prawda, dzisiejsi Litvini to w większości dawni Żmudzini, chociaż zajęli też Auksztotę, która mi się wydawała zawsze sercem wielkiego księstwa Litevskiego.


T. Narbut
"Spusciwszy pózniéj bratu Wikíndowi posiadlosci za Wilii prawym brzegiem lezace mieszkal w sNanenpille z tytulem xiazecia Litewskiego czy Litewsko-Nowogródzkigo Taki byl woim poczatek xieztwa Litewskiego nazwanego Auxtete- Lietua to jest Litwa górna" :-):
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Hi everyone. Is the idea of confederation dead? I have read whole toppic , and dont see any new posts. In my opinion it is beautiful initiative , to rebuild our common heritage. I would love to see us as a one independent country , raising from years of disgrace. We would cut an influence of other countries , and build our own , strong position. We'd continuate tradition of our commonwealth. Now there is no conflict between our religions , as it was ages ago , there are no polish nobles.
We should rebuild our friendship , and be together. Division of nations , who lived in Rzeczpospolita Obojga Narodów is in only Russia business. Now , we could make rather Rzeczpospolita Trojga Narodów (commonwealth of t hree nations) , with Ukrainians , just like Wyhowski wanted: http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unia_hadziacka . Three Nations with the same rights . and friendship between them. It is my dream to rebuild , what had been taken from us in 1795 , but on the new conditions.
:-:ok:-:


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Hi. The idea of confederation is not dead. We support it.

We are ready to see Ukrainians in such confederation. Even lithuanians. Now our country in deep crisis. Problems.
But I hope that in some years somesthing will change.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
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One thing is still on my mind. What the pro-russian part of Belarusian society would say on idea of confederation? Whether or not, is it a big part of your society? Wouldn't they protest?


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Paweł писал(а):
One thing is still on my mind. What the pro-russian part of Belarusian society would say on idea of confederation? Whether or not, is it a big part of your society? Wouldn't they protest?



We should offer a compromise for pro-russian Belarusians.

For example:

1. Belarus remains a bilingual country. No violent Belarusization or polonization.

2. Respect to the Orthodox culture and religion.

3. Good relations with Russia and economic relations with Russia.

4. Belarus is not in NATO.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
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Paweł писал(а):
Hi everyone. Is the idea of confederation dead? I have read whole toppic , and dont see any new posts. In my opinion it is beautiful initiative , to rebuild our common heritage. I would love to see us as a one independent country , raising from years of disgrace. We would cut an influence of other countries , and build our own , strong position. We'd continuate tradition of our commonwealth. Now there is no conflict between our religions , as it was ages ago , there are no polish nobles.
We should rebuild our friendship , and be together. Division of nations , who lived in Rzeczpospolita Obojga Narodów is in only Russia business. Now , we could make rather Rzeczpospolita Trojga Narodów (commonwealth of t hree nations) , with Ukrainians , just like Wyhowski wanted: http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unia_hadziacka . Three Nations with the same rights . and friendship between them. It is my dream to rebuild , what had been taken from us in 1795 , but on the new conditions.
:-:ok:-:


Pawel, do you realize what an uphill battle you are up to? Against this idea will be just everyone including your own government for it governs in the interest of whoever but polish people. You will spoil the great chess game by the British Crown of containing Germany and gradually destroying Russia. The Russian thieves in power will scream their arses out about their perceived "geopolitical interests" and the list just goes on...

Our allies in such an endeavour may only be some intersts in Germany and perhaps in China.


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I understand that :) . It is only my unreal dream , in current geopolitical moment. Im just curious wether Belarusian society would support that idea , or would rather current situation. How would you determine it , percentage? Nevertheless , things are costantly changing , maybe someday we met a chance to change something , if our societies wanted to.


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I think we have a big chances.

Why ?

Because:

- we speak in russian and the most part of belarussians people speak in russian mostly too.
- we understand the mentality of the most part of this people in Belarus, 30-50 %, even 70 %.
- we know what they want and we know what will be interesting for them.
We understand what most people wait from us.

- we understand russians in Russia and we can respect their interests in Belarus.
- We can establish a good relations with russians democrates and with russians national-democrates. They are nationanalists, but not imperialists. They are ready to respect our interests. They speak about it.

- We can establish a good contacts with ukranian nationalists and ukranian democrates.

We need some understanding and helping in the West and in Poland for popularzation our ideas.
I think our ideas have a future.

It is more important for us to integrate in Region (Poland, Ukrania) instead of integration to a new Russian Empire.


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Integration... There is a problem. Few days ago , government announced ,that because of lack of funds the polish a2 highway will not reach boarder with Belarus before 2020.
http://belsat.eu/thumbs/full/20130302_222007.jpg


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Hey Pawel,

Welcome aboard!

The situation is both more, and less complicated. Another Rzeczpospolita would be rather harmful than helpful. There is a reason why all our countries went the path of national formation. In 14th century Poles rebelled against melting with Hungarians, in 15th Litvins (pre-Belarusians) didn't want to melt with Poles, in 17th Ukrainians fought against everyone, and so on. In addition, Rzeczpospolita is insufficient geographically - it is locked by other countries, with exits from Black and Baltic seas being out of its control. Even if we recreate it, it will be easily killed again.

What we need is a bigger union within Central & Eastern Europe that would bring all its key players together. A union that would have a common defense and foreign policy, as well as share certain common values and legacies.

It sounds more difficult, but in reality it is the opposite. Moreover, it is inevitable (with current tendencies in the EU and Russia). Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Rep are already getting closer within the Visigrad group. What we need to add are few more little chains like this: between Poland-Belarus-Ukraine, and between Ukraine-Romania-Hungary-Croatia. It almost doesn't matter what they focus on: regional cooperation, energy policy, or infrastructural projects. What is important, is to achieve the effect of interdependence.

We need to think on the level of Intermarium / Międzymorze. We need to go for a global leader - the United States of Intermarium, not just Rzeczpospolita. Only then we have a chance to not being swallowed by others. And only then our own nations will accept this more ambitious project.

_________________
Изображение


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