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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 25 июн 2012, 23:06 
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Seren писал(а):
Why does Russia need Bielarus so much?

Most of all - for the reasons of internal Russian politics. Kremlin's power cannot exist if Russia is not "great" in the eyes of the Russians (remember how USSR fell apart as soon as the Warsaw Pact kissed goodbye?). Russia needs colonies, client states. And Belarus is Ground Zero for the Russian imperial policy. Inside of Russia Belarus is often perceived as "the closest", "least alien"of the former republics: we are not Muslins like Central Asia, we are not nationalists like Ukraine, and unlike Caucasus we are Slavs. If Russia cannot hold Belarus, then it cannot hold anyone.

Of cause the biggest goal of the Russian imperial policy is Kiev, Ukraine. But loosing Belarus is like loosing the first line in a song - everything falls apart.

There are also two smaller reasons:

1) The one who controls Belarus - controls Ukraine. The only power of Ukraine against Russia is the ability to block Russian exports. Without Belarus any blockade organized by Ukraine is not complete. It can last no longer than days/weeks, and will never be a strategic weapon, only tactical. So, if you control Belarus - you disarm Ukraine.

2) The one who controls Belarus - contains Polish growth. If Belarus is not with Russia, it will inevitably start cooperating more with Poland. Poland and Belarus together is a completely different power league than Poland alone. Without Belarus Poland can only follow Germany. But with Belarus and later Ukraine, Poland can actually be the dominant European power leading even Germany. A Polish dominated EU is a nightmare to Russia.

Poland has tried to supplement Belarus and Ukraine by building closer ties with the Visigrad group. But Visigrad itself is very fragile. Hungary and Slovakia cannot stand each other, and the Czechs are always independent. However, the good thing is that they increasignly realize importance of a much closer cooperation.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 25 июн 2012, 23:13 
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Зарегистрирован: 31 авг 2010, 13:18
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Polish dominated EU is a nightmare to Germany too.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 25 июн 2012, 23:18 
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But Russia knows that the best way to kill any cooperarion between Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus, is to stir it in direction of a "Bigger Poland". Present it as a Polish expansion, annexation, and assimilation of Belarusians/Ukrainians. Not only in the Russian speaking universe, but also in Poland itself. Stimulate through different means Polish perception of itself as of mini-emipre, or even worse - as of recipient of its original long-lost territories.

So, there won't be any surprise in seeing how Russia tries to through gasoline on the fire of Polish ethno-nationalists. By for example, organizing Russian Marches in the middle of Warsaw. Things like that stimulate reaction from ultra-nationalists on each side - and this is exactly what Russia needs.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 25 июн 2012, 23:33 
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Зарегистрирован: 31 авг 2010, 23:41
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I also have a question to Seren, and Vander, and any other Polish visitors:

If you imagine a fully democratic union (confederation, etc) between Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine - Poland will always feel itself a Latin minority in such a union. Imagine Polish presidents (a president of a confederation in this case) being selected by Belarsusian/Ukrainian voters.

I don't think it will be sustainable with Polish. Am I right? Do you agree that it's a legitimate concern?

For this reason I believe it is inevitable to build a confederation between Poland and Belarus in such a way that it can later grow to not only Ukraine, but also Slovakia and the Czech Republic - at least. In this case we will have 54 million people on the "Latin" side, and 54 million people on the "Cyrillic" side. An ideal 50/50 split. But it can also later include Hungary, and maybe even Romania - another important CEE country.

It is also important ideologically, because in this case it will not be seen as a "Polish", but rather an "Intermarian" confederation with a new identity.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 25 июн 2012, 23:56 
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Ah we will come to Latinka too. :mi_ga_et:
And there are Catholics in Belarus also quite enough. :-):

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 00:14 
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ludmila_ch писал(а):
Ah we will come to Latinka too. :mi_ga_et:
And there are Catholics in Belarus also quite enough. :-):

It somehow seems to me that it would be better if each of us - Poles, Ukrainians, Belarusians, Czechs - could stay who we are, and run our internal life the way we see fit. Not hurting ourselves, but not hurting others either, and going through any social changes very carefully.

To do this we need a carefull balance of power between the national and conferedation levels, as well as open, free, and easy flow of information.

For example, you don't need to impose particular business practices on others - all you need to do is to fully explain and show benefits of each step, and others will follow the best practice. Nobody likes to look stupid.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 00:28 
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Зарегистрирован: 12 апр 2012, 19:37
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Woloh писал(а):
I also have a question to Seren, and Vander, and any other Polish visitors:

If you imagine a fully democratic union (confederation, etc) between Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine - Poland will always feel itself a Latin minority in such a union. Imagine Polish presidents (a president of a confederation in this case) being selected by Belarsusian/Ukrainian voters.

I don't think it will be sustainable with Polish. Am I right? Do you agree that it's a legitimate concern?

I agree. I was wondering earlier what would any common organs look like - only I was thinking only about Poland and Belarus at the beginning and I thought it would be opposite disproportion. But it's not only the problem of Cyrillic/Latin society, I guess every nation in general would vote for their candidate, to make their politician a president of the confederation. And that would mean the president would be always Ukrainian. ; ) The same with upper house of the parliament, mentioned in an article "Референдум об объединении Польши и Беларуси в единое конфедеративное государство". There could be a solution similar to EU - one tenure the president would be Ukrainian, next tenure - Belarussian, then Polish and so on. Only it wouldn't be "fully democratic".

Woloh писал(а):
For this reason I believe it is inevitable to build a confederation between Poland and Belarus in such a way that it can later grow to not only Ukraine, but also Slovakia and the Czech Republic - at least. In this case we will have 54 million people on the "Latin" side, and 54 million people on the "Cyrillic" side. An ideal 50/50 split. But it can also later include Hungary, and maybe even Romania - another important CEE country.
Then again "Cyrillic side" would be minority. Even if we add, let's say, Serbia.
ludmila_ch писал(а):
And there are Catholics in Belarus also quite enough. :-):
And I know some Orthodox Poles. ;p And two protestant as well.
Woloh писал(а):
ludmila_ch писал(а):
Ah we will come to Latinka too. :mi_ga_et:
And there are Catholics in Belarus also quite enough. :-):

It somehow seems to me that it would be better if each of us - Poles, Ukrainians, Belarusians, Czechs - could stay who we are, and run our internal life the way we see fit.
Of course, that's obvious. But I saw some of You use Latinka sometimes even here. ; )
Woloh писал(а):
For example, you don't need to impose particular business practices on others - all you need to do is to fully explain and show benefits of each step, and others will follow the best practice.
That would be arduous, at least in case of the president. ; ) Some collegial organ would be proper to discuss common politics.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 00:31 
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Зарегистрирован: 23 июн 2012, 22:50
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Yea and unfortunately Russia know Us better than We know Ourselves :du_ma_et:
Divide et impera.. I think sometimes about order in Europe after Jalta and in my opinion Stalin not only created such borders to divide the sphere of influence, but also he wanted Us to argue each other. He was a genious of chaos :du_ma_et:
Now Poland has Stettin and Wroclaw so Germans will never perceive Poland as a friend or partner. Ukrainians have Lwow which was one of the biggest polish culture center in our country. Litwa cotrols Wilno, where before war only 3-4% were Lithuanians. Belarus controls Grodno, which was also important for Us. Cieszyn - a city between Poland and Czech republic is divided and no one is happy about that :du_ma_et:
And there are only two solutions.
We can hate each other, Poland can wait for a good oportunity to conquer Lwow, Wilno, Grodno and try to fight with You, murder You and deport You or We can yell the longest and loudest FUUUUUUUUUUCK in the history of universe, forgive, unite and treat that places as our common cultural richness :-):
It will be extremely difficult but not impossible. Russia even now, when we are weak, divide people in Poland. We have constant political war so if We really want to try, our societies must be ready for numerous provocations

Woloh:
You are right, it would be a difficult situation, but I have a vision of solution
We will have our own presidents. Belarus, Ukraine and Poland. We will also have our own parliaments, which will function almost like today. For example they will create law . And there also will be an intermarium government. Intermarium institutions will be independend from country ones and will take other competences - for example international policy. I think that our goals will be similar because we are a parts of one region.
The president should not be a great and powerfull institutuon. He will have legislative initiative, he will be our representative abroad and he should be a dictator in a situation of war. I think that it wouldn't be problem for polish people, because he will not have a real posibility to operate to the detriment of Poland :)
Countries should also have a posibility not to accept an intermarium law and regulations if 3/4 of local parlament say "no". It is hard to achieve 3/4 of votes so parlaments will be able to reject only a really hostile regulations. It would allow to work effectively. Otherwise intermarium will not be able to work because always someone will be not completely satisfied.
And I agree it must be something new, not a Big Poland, because its impossible and even if it was possible, it will lead to civil war.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 00:37 
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We won't come to Latinka at once. First, we will return to Belorussian, then gradually, little by little, by wish, will return to Latinka. It's not to do a pleasure for Pols, though, this is too, but for return to our roots. :-):

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 00:44 
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Зарегистрирован: 23 июн 2012, 22:50
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I rather see intermarium as international and technological cooperation but We can't be blind. There should be some common law if we want to be strong together. I only hope that it wouldn't lead to a second europian union with giant bureaucracy and absurdities, such as prohibiting the use of ordinary light bulbs

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 00:58 
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Seren писал(а):
Intermarium institutions will be independend from country ones and will take other competences - for example international policy. I think that our goals will be similar because we are a parts of one region.


agree :a_g_a:


Seren писал(а):
The president should not be a great and powerfull institutuon. He will have legislative initiative, he will be our representative abroad and he should be a dictator in a situation of war.


agree :a_g_a:

Seren писал(а):
Countries should also have a posibility not to accept an intermarium law and regulations if 3/4 of local parlament say "no". It is hard to achieve 3/4 of votes so parlaments will be able to reject only a really hostile regulations. It would allow to work effectively.


agree :a_g_a:


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 01:07 
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ludmila_ch писал(а):
We won't come to Latinka at once. First, we will return to Belorussian, then gradually, little by little, by wish, will return to Latinka. It's not to do a pleasure for Pols, though, this is too, but for return to our roots. :-):
Of course it's not, I don't care if You use Latinka or Cyrillic, personally. ;p I only hope You won't turn to Chinese alphabet, that would be difficult. ;D
Seren писал(а):
We can hate each other, Poland can wait for a good oportunity to conquer Lwow, Wilno, Grodno and try to fight with You, murder You and deport You
We'd have to wait forever, our military is close to hopeless. ;] Also, any action like that would meet immediate reaction of so called "international society". Russia's big, they're permanent member of UN Security Council, so they can do whatever they want in Georgia, but that would end up like a war in former Jugoslavija. Besides, sorry, but the idea itself seems to be stupid. ;]
Seren писал(а):
And there also will be an intermarium government. Intermarium institutions will be independend from country ones and will take other competences - for example international policy.
But what would be the form of the government? And what would the rules of electing them look like? : ) That's the problem pan Woloh wrote about, at least that's how I understood him - it's problematic matter, to organize it all in a way that would give everyone a chance to take care about their business. And in democratic way on the other hand.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 01:11 
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Ahh I always forget about something. :-):
I think that intermarium parliament should not be able to create taxes. Also if one country can't agree to do something it is not a reason to reject an idea. For example Poland wants a new technology. Belarus also need it but Ukraine doesn't want. We should be able to work together in intermarium without all countries :-): Eu would make Ukraine pay for that technology. Intermarium should create a possibility of cooperation of any number of members. In that case Poland and Belarus would be able to work together, pay together and have a common result of research and Ukraine doesn't.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 01:16 
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vanderToki писал(а):
Seren писал(а):
We can hate each other, Poland can wait for a good oportunity to conquer Lwow, Wilno, Grodno and try to fight with You, murder You and deport You
We'd have to wait forever, our military is close to hopeless. ;] Also, any action like that would meet immediate reaction of so called "international society". Russia's big, they're permanent member of UN Security Council, so they can do whatever they want in Georgia, but that would end up like a war in former Jugoslavija. Besides, sorry, but the idea itself seems to be stupid. ;]

Yes it was on purpose stupid :-): Because I don't want to fight with anyone and keep an atmosphere of hate and only of waiting for an opportunity to fight each other
vanderToki писал(а):
Seren писал(а):
And there also will be an intermarium government. Intermarium institutions will be independend from country ones and will take other competences - for example international policy.
But what would be the form of the government? And what would the rules of electing them look like? : ) That's the problem pan Woloh wrote about, at least that's how I understood him - it's problematic matter, to organize it all in a way that would give everyone a chance to take care about their business. And in democratic way on the other hand.


Hmm I think that maybe every country should have for example 40 representants + 1 for every two milions of people living in that country

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
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I'd prefer that the political system of the Confederation was a constitutional monarchy :)

Each country had its parliament, and the cement of the Confederation would be elected by the parliaments King.

King represent the Confederation at the international area, and also was head of the allied armies.

In this way there would be a real link between the Confederation countries, and we do not need to build such a bureaucratic machine that is in the EU. Return to the monarchy would be a symbolic departure from the bureaucratic modern political entities (like EU) in the direction of political system where authority played the most important part, not written by biuracratics rules. Such system would have basis historical also, because he would treat to noble democracy, which was political system of Republic of Both Nations.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 04:45 
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Зарегистрирован: 31 авг 2010, 23:41
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Seren писал(а):
Woloh:
You are right, it would be a difficult situation, but I have a vision of solution
We will have our own presidents. Belarus, Ukraine and Poland. We will also have our own parliaments, which will function almost like today. For example they will create law . And there also will be an intermarium government. Intermarium institutions will be independend from country ones and will take other competences - for example international policy. I think that our goals will be similar because we are a parts of one region.
The president should not be a great and powerfull institutuon. He will have legislative initiative, he will be our representative abroad and he should be a dictator in a situation of war. I think that it wouldn't be problem for polish people, because he will not have a real posibility to operate to the detriment of Poland :)
Countries should also have a posibility not to accept an intermarium law and regulations if 3/4 of local parlament say "no". It is hard to achieve 3/4 of votes so parlaments will be able to reject only a really hostile regulations. It would allow to work effectively. Otherwise intermarium will not be able to work because always someone will be not completely satisfied.
And I agree it must be something new, not a Big Poland, because its impossible and even if it was possible, it will lead to civil war.

Couldn't agree with you more.

One thing - instead of the 3/4 solution, what we have suggested here is to keep the real option and procedures for each nation to leave the union at any time (you could see today what happens to the Euro zone without those procedures). This should cool down some hot heads.

On the one hand, this will restrain majorities from suggesting aggressive stuff to minorities.
On the other hand, minorities will have more egregious consequences for being "strikebreakers", and will think twice to disagree. If the union works, population will be afraid to lose it, and will punish any politician that will risks it for no real reason. In other words, disagreement with the majority will have its price to pay.

This way the system will self-balance, and will continuously maintain the confederation under a stimulus to bring value to its citizens.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 05:04 
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vanderToki писал(а):
Seren писал(а):
And there also will be an intermarium government. Intermarium institutions will be independend from country ones and will take other competences - for example international policy.
But what would be the form of the government? And what would the rules of electing them look like? : ) That's the problem pan Woloh wrote about, at least that's how I understood him - it's problematic matter, to organize it all in a way that would give everyone a chance to take care about their business. And in democratic way on the other hand.


I think what would help is a clear definition of confederate responsibilities, with no ambiguity.

For example - 1. International politics, and 2. Defense - are two big and very clear responsibilities that could be delegated to the confederate level at the first stage. No ambiguity.

You could probably later add few smaller things to it - 3. Information policy (a body that will be responsible for ensuring freedom and effective flow of information within Intermarium, and everything related to that), 4. Business advisory unit, that will be gradually bringing together business environments and regulations (not taxes, but procedures, practices), 5. Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence Units - this all will also have to evolve over time.

If all this proves effective, other responsibilities might be delegated later.

But the main principle - Internally we stay ourselves, while Externally we are united as one.

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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 26 июн 2012, 05:24 
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vanderToki писал(а):
There could be a solution similar to EU - one tenure the president would be Ukrainian, next tenure - Belarussian, then Polish and so on. Only it wouldn't be "fully democratic".
Woloh писал(а):
For this reason I believe it is inevitable to build a confederation between Poland and Belarus in such a way that it can later grow to not only Ukraine, but also Slovakia and the Czech Republic - at least. In this case we will have 54 million people on the "Latin" side, and 54 million people on the "Cyrillic" side. An ideal 50/50 split. But it can also later include Hungary, and maybe even Romania - another important CEE country.

Then again "Cyrillic side" would be minority. Even if we add, let's say, Serbia.

I guess, when the union becomes big enough it won't matter. 6-8 players pretty much guarantees that no one (like Ukraine, or Poland) will dominate. Although it shouldn't be too big.

Let's try to decide the president by his/her qualities, not by his/her nationality (even if the post is nominal). What we can do is to shift his/her office from Warsaw to Minsk to Kiev to etc every year. And perhaps over time, as we get closer to each other, this presidential position will be getting less and less nominal, with increasing responsibilities.

A smart candidate will try to learn more than two languages to gain advantage over competitors. If you have a Ukrainian guy who speaks fluently Polish, or a Polish guy who addresses a crowd in Minsk in Russian/Belarusian, I don't think he will be perceived as a "dangerous foreigner". Especially if he demonstrates good knowledge of issues.

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ruch_chorzow писал(а):
I'd prefer that the political system of the Confederation was a constitutional monarchy :).

If you could only suggest us a good ruling house? :-):

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Hmm yoyrs idea is also good and i agree. every country should have a posibility to leave the union but i am affraid that people in poland do not care about anything :/ Polititians can do and say awerything and the majority of people just want to have a stupid tv programmes and are not aware of anything that happens in poland or abroad. If we want it to works, we must make society aware. We must learn them to think but i hawe no idea how to achieve that

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Seren писал(а):
Ahh I always forget about something. :-):
I think that intermarium parliament should not be able to create taxes. Also if one country can't agree to do something it is not a reason to reject an idea. For example Poland wants a new technology. Belarus also need it but Ukraine doesn't want. We should be able to work together in intermarium without all countries :-): Eu would make Ukraine pay for that technology. Intermarium should create a possibility of cooperation of any number of members. In that case Poland and Belarus would be able to work together, pay together and have a common result of research and Ukraine doesn't.
Alright, agreed that we shouldn't make each other to pay for something we don't need or don't want, still some common tax would be unavoidable - a little amount of money for the upkeep of the parliament and all common organs and institutions. ; )
Woloh писал(а):
One thing - instead of the 3/4 solution, what we have suggested here is to keep the real option and procedures for each nation to leave the union at any time (you could see today what happens to the Euro zone without those procedures). This should cool down some hot heads.
I like this idea. The confederation/union should be completely voluntary, with no unnecessary duress.
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Seren писал(а):
And there also will be an intermarium government. Intermarium institutions will be independend from country ones and will take other competences - for example international policy.
But what would be the form of the government? And what would the rules of electing them look like? : ) That's the problem pan Woloh wrote about, at least that's how I understood him - it's problematic matter, to organize it all in a way that would give everyone a chance to take care about their business. And in democratic way on the other hand.


I think what would help is a clear definition of confederate responsibilities, with no ambiguity.

For example - 1. International politics, and 2. Defense - are two big and very clear responsibilities that could be delegated to the confederate level at the first stage. No ambiguity.
I agree, these are perfect responsibilities for a start.
Цитата:
You could probably later add few smaller things to it - 3. Information policy (a body that will be responsible for ensuring freedom and effective flow of information within Intermarium, and everything related to that), 4. Business advisory unit, that will be gradually bringing together business environments and regulations (not taxes, but procedures, practices), 5. Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence Units - this all will also have to evolve over time.
Hm, aren't Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence connected with defence, military? ; )
Woloh писал(а):
If all this proves effective, other responsibilities might be delegated later.

But the main principle - Internally we stay ourselves, while Externally we are united as one.
I like this principle very much. ; )
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vanderToki писал(а):
There could be a solution similar to EU - one tenure the president would be Ukrainian, next tenure - Belarussian, then Polish and so on. Only it wouldn't be "fully democratic".
Woloh писал(а):
For this reason I believe it is inevitable to build a confederation between Poland and Belarus in such a way that it can later grow to not only Ukraine, but also Slovakia and the Czech Republic - at least. In this case we will have 54 million people on the "Latin" side, and 54 million people on the "Cyrillic" side. An ideal 50/50 split. But it can also later include Hungary, and maybe even Romania - another important CEE country.

Then again "Cyrillic side" would be minority. Even if we add, let's say, Serbia.

I guess, when the union becomes big enough it won't matter. 6-8 players pretty much guarantees that no one (like Ukraine, or Poland) will dominate. Although it shouldn't be too big.

Let's try to decide the president by his/her qualities, not by his/her nationality (even if the post is nominal). What we can do is to shift his/her office from Warsaw to Minsk to Kiev to etc every year. And perhaps over time, as we get closer to each other, this presidential position will be getting less and less nominal, with increasing responsibilities.
Still I believe many people would rather vote for "our candidate". ; ) At least unless the candidates create some mixed commitees - let's say, I'm Polish, but a chairman of my electoral committee is Belarussian, my co-workers are of different nationality, I am supported by parties from different countries. ; ) I'll accept every solution which wouldn't make it similar to EU, where we have no influence on who's in charge and we get guys like Barroso and von Rompuy as a result - actually we hadn't even known the second one before he was, hm, he wasn't elected... before he suddenly appeared. ;]

Woloh писал(а):
A smart candidate will try to learn more than two languages to gain advantage over competitors. If you have a Ukrainian guy who speaks fluently Polish, or a Polish guy who addresses a crowd in Minsk in Russian/Belarusian, I don't think he will be perceived as a "dangerous foreigner". Especially if he demonstrates good knowledge of issues.
Haha, like miss Dalia Grybauskaitė, who speaks Polish quite well. ; )


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Hmm i know it isn't perfect solution, but i think that if We assume that a president shouldn't be a powerfull person(as i said representative abroad, legislative initiative, and a dictator in a situation of war), maybe we should choose him in sequence?
Elections every two or three years, and for example in first elections only candidates with polish/belarussian/ukrainian citizenship will be able to be a candidate. After that 2-3 years, we choose a man from other country?
But everyone should be able to vote every time. No matter if that time We choose a belarusian, polish or ukrainian president. All citizens can vote.

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Honestly, I don't like this idea, as I've written before. ;] Here's the reasons: first of all, it's limitation of democracy. Not everyone can stand for office and the number of candidates is limited. Moreover, the nuisance appears - when someone's very good at their office, they function very well as the president, they can't be elected for the second term in row because of their nationality. Even when president's not powerful, that's uncomfortable. ; ) Pan Woloh's idea of switching residence from one capital city to another seems to be better in my opinion, even if it's mostly symbolical matter.


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Yes, it may also solve some problems but i think that the basic one will still disturb. Majority of people will always vote for "their man" and country with the greatest number of people will dominate.
I know, as i said my idea isn't perfect but i think it may help to maintain the balance between each other.
And what if we add a possibility not only to vote for the belarussian, polish or ukrainian president (depending on whose turn will it be) but also we would be able to re-elect one of last three presidents?
I think that it would maintain the balance. Remember that belarus has only 10 milions of people, so even if we have 100% democratic elections, there always will be two candidates in second turn of elections. A polish and an ukrainian one. No chances for belarusian president


So I think that three step elections would solve a problem
1)We choose polish/belarusian/ukrainian candidate(depending on whose turn will it be)
2)We choose one of last three presidents - a polish/belarussian/ukrainian one
3)We choose one of them :-):

If candidate that already was a president was great, he has good chances to win.
If he wasnt great but polish/ukrainians citizens managed to elect him only because he is a pole or ukrainian, He has no real chances to win, because majority of people from second country and belarusians will together vote for a new one

I know it is not 100% democratic but democracy is not perfect.
That way we will have a balance between democracy and justice

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vanderToki писал(а):
Honestly, I don't like this idea, as I've written before. ;] Here's the reasons: first of all, it's limitation of democracy. Not everyone can stand for office and the number of candidates is limited. Moreover, the nuisance appears - when someone's very good at their office, they function very well as the president, they can't be elected for the second term in row because of their nationality. Even when president's not powerful, that's uncomfortable. ; ) Pan Woloh's idea of switching residence from one capital city to another seems to be better in my opinion, even if it's mostly symbolical matter.

I agree with you that a non-democratic principle will be unsustainable. This is exactly what fails today in the EU - its leadership lacks democratic legitimacy, and thus it will never have real responsibilities openly delegated to it.

In addition, if we talk about foreign and defence policy, basically, we talk about the ultimate ability to declare a war. This is a pretty heavy stuff. It requires full backing of the entire population, and its readiness to sacrifice for the common cause. That's why we should all feel like we took such a decidion together (not one nation at a time), we are all responsible, and that a head of confederation represents all our values.

I am leaning towards a model developed by Switzerland (which faced similar nationalistic concerns).

In Switzerland the status of the head os state is not personal - it is collective, performed by the Swiss Federal Council. SFC consists of 7 members. Those 7 members rotate as Presidents and vice-presidents of SFC every year, being appointed by the Swiss parliament. Basically, every member of SFC at some point becomes a vice-president, and then a president.

===============

Imagine the confederation being led by a similar 7-member Supreme Council. Each Councilor is elected by a respective region (for 7 years), representing values and voices of people from that region. Each Councilor at some point becomes the President of the Council for no more than 1 year. It's ok to have such a short period because the Council President is rather a spokes person, and a tie-breaker. The real collective responsibility lies on the overall council - on all its 7 members together.

Roughly, there are 7 regions in the potential confederation which represent different electoral values (3 for Poland, 1 for Belarus, and 3 for Ukraine):

1) Poland 1: Wielkopolska and Slask
2) Poland 2: Pomorze Zachodnie, Pomorze Gdanskie, Mazury
3) Poland 3: Mazowsze, Podlasie, Malopolska
4) Belarus: Belarus
5) Ukraine 1: Western Ukraine
6) Ukraine 2: Central Ukraine
7) Ukraine 3: South-Eastern Ukraine

Вложение:
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Вложение:
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You can see that they are sort of in line with usual electoral preferences.

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Each region is likely to vote its local candidate, but the rules could be broader than that. I believe anyone should be able to run for a Council seat from a particular region as long as he is a citizan of the confederation. Council members will be replaced gradually - one per year - ensuring smoother transition, and continuity. No sudden changes of the political course, and a difficulty to affect the Council's composition by third countries.

Lastly, each of 7 members should have a particular area of responsibility/oversight:

1) Foreign Office
2) Defense
3) [..Business climate???]
4) [..Information flow and government transparensy??]
5) [..Standardization ??]
6) ...
7) ...

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Mybe you are right, but i though that Belarus wouldn't be glad of having less influence on government :-): If you really will accept something like that, I think it may work
And i dont know if it is specially called in english but maybe the head of civil defense?
There should be one responsible for army and plans of defence but also there are situations of natural disasters for example and the head of civil defence would administer for example firefighters and humanitarian Aid

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Woloh писал(а):
In addition, if we talk about foreign and defence policy, basically, we talk about the ultimate ability to declare a war. This is a pretty heavy stuff. It requires full backing of the entire population, and its readiness to sacrifice for the common cause. That's why we should all feel like we took such a decidion together (not one nation at a time), we are all responsible, and that a head of confederation represents all our values.
Agree. I thought declaration of war was rather hypothetical problem, but I'm afraid it can be quite material because of Russia's attitude. : / Some steps in this direction should be made, just to be prepared.

And about idea of seven regions... You know, EU also works this way, so called "euroregions" are created. Only they're cross-border regions, the member states aren't divided into regions, but territories located in different countries are joint together. Also, such euroregion has only competencies at local level. Still, many people feel it as a way to make national connexions weaker, to push them closer to their foreign regions. The latest wouldn't be that bad, it's a good idea itself, but not when it's followed by losing national identity. Euroregions aren't developed enough to be dangerous for this identity, of course, but some little anxious appears. In general, splitting confederation into seven voting areas seems to be good solution, though.
But giving them different areas of responsibility is, hm, strange. It somehow reminded me on France in 17th century, they had four secretaries of state, each of them was responsible for their region and foreign politics connected with respective neighbours (southern, eastern, northern), also they had some additional function - one was responsible for fleet, another for royal court and so on. ; )


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Seren писал(а):
Mybe you are right, but i though that Belarus wouldn't be glad of having less influence on government :-): If you really will accept something like that, I think it may work
I guess it's less the question of bargaining yourself off, and more a question of "what would be more effective". In Belarus-Polish confederation this will still guarantee that 1 in 4 presidents (i.e. confederation faces) is a Belarusian, and a Belarusian councilor is involved in all decisions anyway, being responsible for them together with other 3 members. I think this will be seen as fair.

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I think Woloh means 7 functions, but politicians will hold them interchangeable, yea?
I agree that they should not hold one function. It would be weird if eastern poland politcian will be always a councler of defence :P
But in EU they want people to loose their identity. They do much more, than only dividing countries. I think that doing it wouldn't be advarse. We have local administration and I haven't met anyone that will claim himself a Mazowszanin

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vanderToki писал(а):
Agree. I thought declaration of war was rather hypothetical problem, but I'm afraid it can be quite material because of Russia's attitude. : /

Surely, it's just theoretical. But it's more like a "lacmus test" question. Presidency, in my view, should be about certain joint values and responsibilities.

For example, the EU entirely fails this test - there hasn't been a single conflict so far where the EU would be having a flat unanimous position. Nations don't trust each other enough.

vanderToki писал(а):
But giving them different areas of responsibility is, hm, strange. It somehow reminded me on France in 17th century, they had four secretaries of state, each of them was responsible for their region and foreign politics connected with respective neighbours (southern, eastern, northern), also they had some additional function - one was responsible for fleet, another for royal court and so on. ; )

The idea is not that much a representation of regions, but rather a representation of values. Polish West & North are center-right in values (PO), East is more center-left (PiS), Ukrainian West in more nationalistic (orange), South-East is more pro-Russian (blue), and Center is balanced. Belarus is more unanimous comparing to either Poland, or Ukraine. We shouldn't be suppresing those different values, but rather face them, and find the way to co-exist in a balanced way (like a joint 7-member decision making process).

Later, when new potential countries join, the regions will need to change. Perhaps then we could shift to some Euroregions in few places, after spending some time in one union. This will help to solve the problem of assigning votes to new members of confederation at expense of just one country.

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Seren писал(а):
I think Woloh means 7 functions, but politicians will hold them interchangeable, yea?
I agree that they should not hold one function. It would be weird if eastern poland politcian will be always a councler of defence :P

Correct. Again, I would refer to the Swiss example.

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1) Foreign Office
2) Defense
3) [..Business climate???]
4) [..Information flow and government transparensy??]
5) [..Standardization ??]
6) Human rights(an ombudsman of intermarium) ??
7) civil defence ??

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Again, another advantage of "7 regions" is that voters will not need to decide between Polish vs. Ukrainian. They will simply not compete with each other. Nationality will not be a factor in those decisions, but rather more professional qualities.

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Seren писал(а):
1) Foreign Office
2) Defense
3) [..Business climate???]
4) [..Information flow and government transparensy??]
5) [..Standardization ??]
6) Human rights(an ombudsman of intermarium) ??
7) civil defence ??

Like an option.

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Okay, in this way it makes much more sense to me.
Монро писал(а):
Пока Лукашенко у власти, никаких реформ не будет. Надо сперва поменять режим. :uch_tiv:
Вернусь к этой теме, так как она пока самая главная, а я ещё об это не спрашивал: как это вообще выгладить в Беларуси? Какие у Вас перспективы, чтобы поменять власть? Лукашенко, конечно, добровольно её не отда. Он даже сказал, что хочет возглавлять ещё много лет. Как долго надо реально ждать, чтобы избавиться от него? Ну, можна бы и так это сделать, но... ;]
Я спрашиваю потому, что мы в Польше практически ничего не знаем о Вашей опозыцы. Знаем только, что она есть, тоже знаем о проблемах польского меньшинства. Очень немного.


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I heard some opinions in Poland, that Lukaszenko is a necessery evil, and despite the fact that he is a dictator it is better that to be a part of Russia. Is it true, that chances of being absobred by Russia would be bigger without him?
I think that Belarus must look for an allies. Poland is not ready to be an ally yet.

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vanderToki писал(а):

Вернусь к этой теме, так как она пока самая главная, а я ещё об это не спрашивал: как это вообще выгладить в Беларуси? Какие у Вас перспективы, чтобы поменять власть? Лукашенко, конечно, добровольно её не отда. Он даже сказал, что хочет возглавлять ещё много лет. Как долго надо реально ждать, чтобы избавиться от него?


Моя точка зрения:

1. В Беларуси нет настоящей оппозиции. В Беларуси нет настоящий оппозиционных партий или оппозиционных движений. Все они либо маленькие, ни на что не влияют, либо созданы при помощи КГБ. Отсюда задача:

2. Чтобы бороться с режимом, надо создавать новую оппозицию. Я думаю, что это должна быть не партия, а движение.

3. Это движение не должно включать нынешних оппозиционных политиков. Потому что они все фальшивые. Они не борются за власть, а лишь паразитируют на помощи с Запада.

4. Это движение долно организоваться на нелегальной основе, потому что в настоящее время в Беларуси нет легальных условий для оппозиционной деятельности. Это движение сперва должно вести нелегальную или полулегальную деятельность и сосредоточить все усилия на работе с народом: информация, неофициальные встречи, дискуссии в интернете.

5. После того как такое движение организуется и будет действовать самостоятельно, без участия в нем псевдооппозиции, только после этого у него появятся реальные рычаги организовать белорусский народ в борьбе за свободу.

6. В наших условиях сейчас участвовать в выборах не имеет никакого смысла. Народ не верит таким выборам и не верит оппозиции, которая хочет участвовать в таких выборах. Потому что это не выборы, а всеобщие фальсификации. Обман.


vanderToki писал(а):
Ну, можна бы и так это сделать, но... ;]
Я спрашиваю потому, что мы в Польше практически ничего не знаем о Вашей опозыцы. Знаем только, что она есть, тоже знаем о проблемах польского меньшинства. Очень немного.


Оппозиции на самом деле уже давно нет в Беларуси. Она умерла. Она ничего не делает. Эта оппозиция либо разгромлена властью, либо вожди сбежали за границу, либо находятся под контролем властей. :uch_tiv:

Нужно создавать все заново. Нужно создавать новую оппозицию. Старая оппозиция все проиграла и умерла, хотя некоторые еще ходят по улицам.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 27 июн 2012, 14:01 
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vanderToki писал(а):
Okay, in this way it makes much more sense to me.
Монро писал(а):
Пока Лукашенко у власти, никаких реформ не будет. Надо сперва поменять режим. :uch_tiv:
Вернусь к этой теме, так как она пока самая главная, а я ещё об это не спрашивал: как это вообще выгладить в Беларуси? Какие у Вас перспективы, чтобы поменять власть? Лукашенко, конечно, добровольно её не отда. Он даже сказал, что хотеть возглавлять ещё много лет. Как долго надо реально ждать, чтобы избавиться от него? Ну, можна бы и так это сделать, но... ;]


The disgusting pauper in Belarus high political places is a Kremlin puppet. Hence any pro-western political movement by definition is against him.

The Belarus-Polish unity is deeply rooted in our mutual history, it cuts through the blood of both of our peoples, which makes the entire idea of Belarus-Polish Confederation a very appealing and easy to understand political proposition.

To summarise, the Belarus-Polish Confederation is not only a political goal but as matter of fact is a political means to remove the ruling peasant from his power.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 27 июн 2012, 14:09 
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Seren писал(а):
I heard some opinions in Poland, that Lukaszenko is a necessery evil, and despite the fact that he is a dictator it is better that to be a part of Russia. Is it true, that chances of being absobred by Russia would be bigger without him?
I think that Belarus must look for an allies. Poland is not ready to be an ally yet.


We are a part of Russia precisely because of Lukashenka. Thanks to him Belarus has a very limited sovereignty and virtually non-existent western foreign relations.


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 Заголовок сообщения: Re: Idea wspólnej konfederacji Polski i Białorusi
Сообщение Рейтинг поста: [ ] Добавлено: 27 июн 2012, 16:17 
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SD писал(а):
We are a part of Russia precisely because of Lukashenka. Thanks to him Belarus has a very limited sovereignty and virtually non-existent western foreign relations.

This is true, but he is a very unreliable Russian ally. Once in a while he bites Russia, and he does it quite on purpose (with Saakashvili, with Abkhazia, with Bakiev, with Venezuelan oil, with Eastern Partnerships, etc)

But mostly - something is going on with China. We don't see it yet, but judging by a complete grave silence from the Russian side on this matter - they must be pretty pissed off.

All those investment projects, Chinese cities in Minsk surburbs, billion $ bids for Belkalij - that's one thing. But something that stroke me most was a tiny deal for supply of 22 Chinese Hummer rip-offs to the Belarus Army. This sounds innocent, but in reality - this is a precedent for supply of military equipment, when Russia fails to supply one. They are testing the route, and building necessary connections between Chinese and Belarusian military folks. And that's not the first time. Military exercises last year near Baranovichi between Chinese and Belarusian troops with a vivid absence of Russians.

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