I'm sure you are hard-working people with a huge desire of improving your quality of life. I'm sure that your land hides lots of natural resources- we have technology to help you in digging.



I see well-preserved forrests, some industry (trucks), chemistry, crafting, crystals and porcelain, mining.



You asked a very important question.
According to real free market&capitalism political doctrine: the man who is hard working will have a good life. The man who is enterprising will have a good life. The man who is both hard-working and enterprising will have a luxury life. But the man who is both lazy and not enterprising will have a very poor life. And let's hope his situation will motivate him to become a hard-working. Not everyone borns to be a businessman, but everyone can work!
Capitalism is nothing more than allow people to work. About 80% of Belarussian GDP is created in state sector. This is socialism, and it ruins your economy, it is simply ineffective.

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If so, I can tell You, what Polish opponents would say. ; )
First, economical situation in Belarus seems to be disastrous from here - we hear a lot about inflation, for example. Some citizens of western Lands of Germany are still displeased about how much work and money they had to put to eastern Lands after 1990 - and they're all of the same nation (more or less, now they have lots of foreigners there ;]). Polish economy isn't much better than Belarussian and most of us probably wouldn't like to help you.
Secondly - unemployment rate in Belarus seems to be very low. However, it's probably because of the state sector. Switching system into capitalism could cause rapid rise in unemployment. Many people would look for a job in Poland and, with their salary demands lower, they could bump the Poles out of their jobs.
Another thing - Lukaszenka doesn't treat Polish minority in Belarus as well as we would wish them to be treated. Because of that, some people regards Belarus as rather unfriendly country, they reject any idea of union. This isn't a big problem, though.
That's all what's came through my mind so far.

Then I change the question :)
Why Poland and Belarus NOT NEED Confederation?
WHAT EXACTLY Poland loses?

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And what Poland can receive with Confederation?

Can you find statistics about how many Belarusian used "Polish card" and left for permanent residence?
That is, I wonder how effective this tool.

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Poland doesn't lose too much, actually - I've mentioned jobs already; the Poles are rather afraid of the costs. It's quite difficult to talk about it as I don't know everything about the situation in Belarus, perhaps I think stereotypically; but for us it seems that Belarussian economy needs serious improvements. For example, industry works pretty well, but devices, machines are old, post-Soviet, they need to be repaired often, it would be better to buy some new equipment. There are also natural resources, but another investments would be necessary to exploit them. As I wrote before - some changes should be done in Polish economy, too, and we wouldn't be able to help You.
In my opinion, Belarus can lose something as well, on the other hand. There are less than ten million Belarussians and over thirty five million Poles, there's danger that Your nation would get assimilated. About the first question You asked: Confederation isn't necessary, imperative; it's possible, as an option, but I think we could live just as good neighbours as well.
Oh, I must add: I am not totally against the Confederation, I like the idea quite much, only I try to look at various aspects of it. ; )
Stronger position in international politics, perhaps. Close partner in relations with Russia. As my friend Sim0nSs stated before - that could be an introduction to further confederation (or just cooperation), maybe with Lithuania or Ukraine.
I can look for some statistics on weekend. For now I can write You what conditions must be fulfilled to gain karta Polaka, if You want. ; )

but for us it seems that Belarussian economy needs serious improvements.
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Of course.

No, snx :)
I am an 1/4 Pole (my great-grandfather Pole), but if I leave, who will raise the country?

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I didn't mean it that way, I just thought You may be curious. : )

We just have this information would be too dangerous, and you are likely in the public domain.
Belarusian TV has announced the official number one enemy of Poland, after his own opposition, of course

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My mother was a Pole. Her mother"s last name was Batura.

The first name was Elzhbeta.

So I am 50 % a Pole.

But without a polish language.

Hm, I'm sorry, I'm afraid I didn't understand this sentence...
We write it "Elżbieta". ; ) Well, I know my family a few generations back and everyone was 100% Polish. Maybe someone earlier wasn't, but I don't think I have any Belarussians decent, my family comes from South-Eastern Poland. But my brother has a friend from Belarussian minority, Igor, they study together. ; )

Recently read that when the Belarusian minority is trying to organize a politic party for participation in local elections, them dispersed. Quietly.
And that the census underestimated the number of Belarusians in Poland.
This can be done? Or is it the work of our advocacy?

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My grandmother name was Elzbieta Batura. She was married with my grandfather Ivan Sushinski.
They were catholics and lived at the farm not far from city Igumen (now Cherven). It's 60 km from Minsk.

Belarusian TV pouring slops on Poland and the Polish government.
Producing a whole series about how Poland wants to capture Belarus.
Full trash.
And people believe.

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I have never heard about it. The only minority which has their party in our parliament is German, that's for sure. I also know that in local authorities in Podlasie region there are Belarussians. In Hajnówka, Bielsk Podlaski and Białystok. But they belong to Polish parties, only in Hajnówka they organised something like a party, called Belarussian Committee or similar. I don't know anything about underestimating number of any minority either; I've always trusted the censuses so far.

Here is my take on it.

Main Polish fears

1. Need to feed Belarus
Status: Not True
We are not talking about merging Belarus into Poland. Two countries will continue having separate governments in most areas. Merging such vastly different economies overmnight is impossible. What is economically good for Poland is not necessarily good for Belarus and vice versa. Any movement towards each other will be gradual. What will be joint is long-term strategy, foreign policy, and defence.

2. Cheap labor
Status: True
One of the main Polish problems is high level of unemployment. Cheap labor from Belarus, and outflow of Polish investments into cheaper areas will be a problem for Poland. There is no easy solution and it will require a carefull macroeconomic plan. I'm not that worried for Belarusians running into Poland. If the employment situation in Poland is worse, and Belarus receives Polish level of business guarantees, any outflow will be insignificant and most likely happen to places like Germany.

3. Effect on political environment
Status: Partially True
If two countries establish joint democratically elected institutions, like a joint Upper Chamber of the Parliament, or a joint President, there will be a mutual effect. For this reason, responsibilities of Confederative institutions should increase gradually over time based on a roadmap.

4. Socializm vs. Capitalizm clash
Status: Not True
Poles will be surprised to see how many Belarusians would vote for Tusk, instead of Kaczynski - if they have a chance. No one here is an adherent of Lenin. However, there are some values - like education, science, healthcare - were Belarusians are predominantly in favor of the Scandinavian model.

5. Antagonizm against Poles
Status: Not True
Only as a part of the current government propaganda against the West. On the human level Poles are highly respected, and even protected by locals vis-a-vis any comments, for example, from Russians.


Main Belarusian fears

1. Cultural suppression
Status: Not True
Within both the EU, and the Confederation Belarusians (both Russian and Belarusian speaking) will have a higher chance of preserving their cultural identity than under Russia, or in an "independent" status, which as we see now is not much different from "being under Russia"

2. Russia will kill us
Status: Not True
They failed to kill Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia in 1989. All of Eastern Europe has no problems with current Russian gas prices - why should we be?

3. Harsh competition
Status: True
Exposure to a much more competitve environment were majority of products are cheaper will tak a toll on some Belarusian businesses. Yet, this will be more than offset by import duties they won't have to pay any more.

4. Resistance from local minigarchs and KGB
Status: Really hard to say
These guys know that opening of KGB archives will cause them a lot of troubles. Especially since now they are fully in charge. But most of minigarchs are already old dudes, and they want security to their money. They want to become respectful capitalists. As for the KGB and police - people are already running from those ranks as hell. Many will be happy to see the change of the guard on top.

5. Antagonizm against Belarusians
Status: Not True
It's a combination of two factors: obscure knowledge about Belarusians in Poland, and current Lukashenko's propaganda. Once we start talking to each other directlty, 99% of this will evaporate.

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Thanks for answering.

Nevertheless I see the main problem not in the economy but in people.Modern hi-tech economy does not need a lot of manpower. And really creative people were never numerous.

(Me personally, I'm not a partisan of liberal paradigm,because it sounds like social darvinism. It's possible to embellish it with "corporate social responsibility" but the essence remains the same. Equality of opportunity does not mean equality of outcome. But it's off-topic here.)

I'll be very pleased to know your point of view of the following points:

- the strategic goals and directions of common foreign policy of Confederation;

- the strategic goals of common defense plan;

- the principles of common army formation and command;

- "becoming a noteworthy country for global players" means the readiness to undertake greater responsibility in regional / global affairs. How do you assess the challenges and risks for Confederation?

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Dictatorship always need an inner or external enemy to exist. The choice was obvious- Poland and Poles, old imperialists. Poland represents everything which is dangerous for Lukashenko- an innovation, development, progress and wide social freedom, including freedom of speech. How to change people' minds? I don't know. How many Belarussians use the Internet? And how many watch TV only, with its lies and anti-Polish propaganda? How do you want to persuade them your idea without real power of mass-media? And why do you think that Lukash will let you to manifest and collect followers? I'm afraid he will quickly announce you as the V column of Poland and you'll become the public enemy no. 2, just after Poland.
Have you any idea?

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We will not build modern high technological economy from day to day, manpower still needed. It will be rather like a long-term aim, even for future generations.



It is a famous discussion between Rawls and Nozick. I have always claimed that social inequality is the main reason of development. Maybe it sounds like a social darvinism, for some of us immoral, but why? I'm deeply interested in this area, spent weeks of my life reading about Chicago Boys in Chile, Deng-Xiao Ping in China and about the basics of United States. Nothing more effective than this.




Our first goal is to weaken Russia, so we must focus on strenghten relationships with USA and China. Intelligence should stir up trouble in Chechnya, separatism inside Russia will help us on the next level to confederate with Ukraine (surely they'll have problems with Russian minority, as a majority at the East- Donieck and South- Crimea). We must use European Union (as long as it will be exist) to block Russia in continental Europe, especially Gasprom and national Russian corporations to prevent them from taking over infrastructure and strategical companies. We must come back to idea of Intermarium and work on this loose confederation, slowly welcoming other countries aware of this necessity. As I said before, there is one crucial position among geopolitical books which is a must. I added link with book in English, feel free to download and read by clicking the green button "pobierz".




Write a scenario against war with Russia to hold them for at least 2 weeks; i don't predict any other threats, the only threat may be a conventional assault on Belarus. Russia will stop on the Bug, not willing to risk a real confrontation with NATO. So: keep hard resistance on Belarus.



I don't think we should unite our formations, common maneuvers will be sufficient. We must re-locate units on Belarus and adjustour military doctrine to local conditions- forrests, mud.



Such Confederation will be a natural regional leader.
The greatest challenge is to create a Headquarter of intelligent and wise people with a vision and idea. If we don't manage to do so, then we will drawn in our desires. This is the greatest risk- lack of political elites. To be honest, i don't see such people at the horizon. But keep praying for miracle, these people are surely borned and they're waiting for their chance.

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You perceive Russia as the historic enemy. The unification of Belarus and Poland on the basis of the idea of a common enemy road to nowhere and should not consider this unification as the ultimate goal, but only as one of the links of the chain, followed which should be considered the accession of Western Russia to the economic and political Union of the new Polish state. Task-the creation of a powerful center of political gravity to surrounding countries. That is why we should stick to our multi-vector in relation to the neighbouring countries and does not apply to Russia as an enemy, but as a partner.

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То, что вам нужно, придёт к вам само, если вы не будете требовать того, что вам не нужно.
Когда дует ветер перемен одни возводят стены,а другие строят ветряные мельницы.

I would be glad to see this, but do you really think that Russia ruled by Putin will integrate with the new Commonwealth? For me, it is impossible. The creation of center of political gravity is not convenient for Russia, because it's their very own ambition. And confederation is not convenient for Russia, because their geopolitical doctrine assumes fully unification of once lost territories.
To be clear: I have nothing against Russian people, i like them as my relatives, but their leadership is a threat and they strengthen us in this belief all the time.

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agree

2 Sim0nSs

Thank you for explaining your position.

Still I've got some more questions [please, take it as an interview, not interrogation ]

How do you see the hierarchy of Confederation legislation? (national, confederational,international)

If we presume that Poland does not leave EU and NATO, than Belarus could eventually maintain its membership in EuroAsian Economic Union and in Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). Could the contradictions between international systems be eliminated on the level of Confederation?

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Все хотят добра. Не отдавайте его.(с)

Today, Russia's leadership is an illusion. As is never close it is to break up. She holds for Belarus as a drowning man at a straw. The power is catastrophically losing the confidence of the people. Degradation of the economy, reduction of the population. The leadership of the new Polish state in the region only a matter of time. Be ready to the new realities, not to miss the historic moment.

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То, что вам нужно, придёт к вам само, если вы не будете требовать того, что вам не нужно.
Когда дует ветер перемен одни возводят стены,а другие строят ветряные мельницы.

Very interesting point of view on Russia and Belarus from the book Friedman - "The next 100 years A forecast for the 21 century". The author believes that in the next decade, Russia's strategy in the north European plain would be to
create a buffer zone separating Russia from Europe. Buffer zones for buffer zones. In these areas, Russia will be manipulated by the authorities, not allowing them to unite against Russia.

In other words, Russia will do its utmost to prevent Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states to join together. In general, Russia will be categorically opposed to the confederation of Poland and Belarus.
Russia will do everything possible to its neighbors were weak, divided and did not prevent the penetration of Russia.

Accordingly, the Poles and Belarussians should do the opposite. We must unite.

This is a private opinion is not quite correct. Extraction of the Belarusian economy from the Russian zone will lead to the inevitable collapse. It is about 50% of Belarus exports associated with Russia, or even more. Of course,you will do not have to feed the Belorussians for one year or more. But then they either rebel or die from hunger

A stay of the Belarusian economy in the zone of influence of Russia leads us to total degradation.

Then they would be badly surprised, because Tusk isn't that much into economy. Our goverment cares about PR mostly. They aren't as effective as we would like to.
Very good question, I've been thinking a bit about it since yesterday. ; ) It may cause problems if we're hipothetically to have common foreign politics while, on the other hand, belonging to different international organisations. But it's possible, I think we'd have to make up some solution, some precedent in this matter. ; )
Yes, we regard it as a big problem. Looks like Your economy is closely connected with Russian one. We had similar problem in the past, though: before first world war most of the Polish lands was a part of Russian Empire and our economy there was actually dependent on Russia. But after the war we regained independency and we had to get by without almost any contacts with our former trade partners, markets and so on because of the revolution and Soviet Union's appearance. And we made it quite well.

Of course. We also will do it for one to three years,I think so. The whole problem is who will pay this difficult time. Price of East Germany for West -1.3 trillion

People, of course.

Please, do not tell them.

This is the most widely spread and the biggest misconception of what is really going on. Our current economy produces nothing more than deficits across the board eventually leading up to a reproduction of the perpetual economic and political dependency on our Big Brother. It is far cheaper for the overall Belarus economy to maintain about 30% of the entire workforce on unemployment benefits of about $150-200 per month as suppose to continue this economic madness of recycling raw materials and energy into illiquid trash and pollution.

To our visitors from abroad, who have difficulty browsing BRAMA, I just want to flag that the concept of Intermarium (or Międzymorze - how it is sometimes called in Polish), is not new to this website. We have already been discussing various aspects of it in a variety of the following topics here:

1) Statistics of countries of Central-Eastern Europe


2) An ex-territorial cross-border city between Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine


3) High-speed rail transport in the region of Intermarium


4) The Intermarium: Wilson, Madison, & East Central European Federalism


5) Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova in the context of Intermarium

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Confederation must be decentralised. Narrow range of crucial competencies would be in hands of common council, but to be honest: this matter is too difficult to predict. I'd rather look on United States after their war for independence and somehow adjust our model using these patterns.



Contradictions must be eliminated on the level of Confederation. Again your question requires a huge knowledge, it is surely a work for experienced lawyers. I don't even know if we would be able to maintain our membership in both CSTO and EU/NATO... It's rather impossible.



Wounded wild animal is most dangerous.



According to Federation of Polish Food Banks we waste 9 million tonnes of food.

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Thank You Mr Woloh, interesting topics. : ) I'll try to read them more carefully when I'll have more time.
And according to EU investigation, about two million of Polish children clem, suffer from hunger meanwhile.
I've failed to find any fresh and more detailed statistics. All I've got is that until March 2010 there were 14 509 applications from Belarus, one site claims that through the first three years about 20 000 people from Belarus gained karta Polaka, but doesn't mention any source. I haven't found any information about how many of them decided to move to Poland. I think it's not very effective, for example I heard that in Lithuania very few people applicated for it. The reason may be it's a lot of work, going to embassy and so on. I also read an opinion of a Pole from Lithuania who said he didn't need any "piece of paper" to know where he comes from.

Bo rząd zabiera podatki im rodzicom i przeznacza na szklankę mleka dla wszystkich, która ostatecznie ląduje w zlewie?

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Dlatego też nie wydaje mi się, żebyśmy potrafili rozsądnie wykorzystać te tony żywności w ramach konfederacji.

Today our task is to extend Confederate theme, despite the reaction of the public and the authorities. For the average Belarusians - its a bomb. We're trying to get things off the ground in the minds of people. We have not (yet) need followers. We need to discuss. Whatever people thought and talked about it. At first this idea for them to be crazy. Then strange. And only later - is acceptable. Now we are at the first stage.

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Ok, some of the Polish resources picked up the topic:

http://nczas.com/wiadomosci/polska/nasz ... -z-polska/

http://gazeta-polska.pl/?p=59639

I will re-post some of the comment to here, to make sure they stay with us no matter what

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